Solid = actual sold price. Dashed = base-case projection (seasonally adjusted — it rises and dips with the calendar). Shaded = the range the model has typically landed within, widening the further out it looks.
Why the model projects this — from the data, not opinion
This is a statistical projection, not a guarantee or advice. A regularized regression, retrained continuously, forecasts each home type at each horizon using the specific signals that scored best in an exhaustive back-test of thousands of variable combinations — days-on-market and months-of-inventory proved the most predictive, alongside the sales-to-new-listings and sale-to-list ratios, mortgage rates and affordability depending on the case. The probabilities and the track record come from that out-of-sample scoring. Real markets are still moved by rate decisions, policy shifts and shocks no model can foresee — treat this as one data-driven input, not a decision.
